Tuesday 26 January 2016

Pure speculation: Medium format fuji

Commenting on fujirumors post:Medium format Fujifilm

Fujirumors has a source saying Fujifilm will release a digital medium format interchangeable lens camera by September. Take it with a grain of salt is also added for good measures. First, ill tell you why that grain should be a ton and then we can have some fun speculating.

There are numerous reasons why this is highly unlikely. 
  1. Fujifilm, just a week ago, said that they are looking into the market, but hasnt even found a sensor yet. It takes more than half a year to develop a camera.
  2. Their camera developers should now be fully comitted to the final stages of the x-t2 project. In theori they could allready be done, but when did such a project ever finish early?
  3. The medium format market is both a small and a risky one. Fuji has allready found a way of making safe money in that market. They manufacture the Hasselblad lenses. Fuji may be oddballs simetimes, but they are not really really stupid. No one in their right mind would risk that relationship by competing with their partner.
  4. Who would the customers be? An aps-c xpro2 is $1800 or so. Let's say they could sell a camparable MF camera plus a good kit lens for slightly below $10000. No way enough people would buy it to make the production profitable.

Speculations

If Fuji is indeed, dispite how unlikely it is, going to launch a digital medium format interchangeable lens camera by September, what can have prompted it? I have a few suggestions. 
  1. It's a rebranded Hasselblad for the Japanese market, just like the GX645AF was. 
  2. The deal with Hasselblad is coming to an end.
  3. They are now confident that the organic sensor will work and will change the game. Having a medium format system in production when it eventually arrives, would maybe make some sense.
  4. Sony's sensor division has given Fuji an offer they can't resist. A deal to get a very nice price on MF sensors in return from staying away from full frame 24x36mm could be a candidate. Or if Sony's purchase of Toshibas sensor department brought a product without any customer.
  5. The camera is so different that it will not compete on the same market as Hasselblad does. GA645 style point and shoot, TLR, Folder, GX680 monster or whatever.
  6. The camera is something that will increase Hasselblad profit as well. Compatible with H system, but not competing with it. I cant really come up with a good candidate, but maybe Fujifilm has.
  7. It's really really odd. Let's say a big plastic instax with a built in scanner instead of a sensor. Wouldnt cost much to buy but every picture would be $1 and there would be a few minutes delay for the instax to develop before its scanned.
  8. There is a slight error with "digital medium format interchangeable lens camera". Take away digital or interchangable. A realaunch of a 6x7 folding film camera or a medium format x100 makes a lote more sense
  9. Someone at Fuji came up with a real game changer.
Most likely, however, this rumor is nothing but a rumor.

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